Consumer Confidence Surge Fuels New Momentum in BIST 100

A sudden jump in consumer confidence is reshaping Turkey's macroeconomic outlook, paving the way for BIST 100's technical indicators to flip from red to green.

Roots of the Confidence Wave

■78% new consumer confidence index, up +7 points YoY.

■Inflation expectations fell from 12.4% to 10.2%, boosting real spending motivation.

■Exporters' growth at 5.3%, signaling improving external demand.

■Central Bank's policy rate trimmed from 13.5% to 12.75%, easing credit costs.

BIST 100's New Technical Trajectory

■Fibonacci 0.618 correction level held firm at 7,500, confirming the uptrend.

■Ichimoku Kumo cloud breached its upper boundary, delivering a green trend signal inside the cloud.

■50‑day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) broke 7,420; 200‑day MA found support at 7,350.

■RSI (14) stands at 62, nearing overbought territory while still balanced.

Strategic Positioning and Portfolio Impact

■Within BIST 100, Financials and Consumer sectors led gains with 3.2% and 2.8% respectively.

■USD/TRY slipped from 18.30 to 18.05, enhancing domestic buying power.

■Gold (XAU/USD) fell 1.4% to $1,820, reviving risk appetite.

■Short‑term Treasury yields eased to 14.2%, supporting fixed‑income allocations.

Caner Yılmaz: "This positive consumer confidence break is aligning BIST 100's technical signals. Fibonacci retracement levels and Ichimoku cloud confirmation point to a bullish move, especially in financial and consumer stocks, presenting short‑term buying opportunities. Yet, given external shock risks, setting stop‑loss around 7,380 is essential for portfolio protection."