Weekly Market Balance: How Liquidity and Volatility Mapped Out from July 13‑17

The weekly market balance revved up investors’ pulse; the July 13‑17 window delivered critical signals on trading volume and volatility.

Volume Surge and Liquidity Spike

BIST 100’s average daily turnover jumped 42%, reaching 1.8 billion shares. The surge stemmed largely from aggressive buying in technology and energy stocks.

■Average daily volume: 1.8 bn shares (+42%)

■Peak day: July 15, 2.1 bn shares

■Liquidity depth: 5‑minute bid‑ask spread held steady around 0.3%

Sector Rotation and Top Performers

Financial services and defense led the rally, while retail and construction lagged. The three biggest gainers were:

■ASELSAN (+9.4%) – Boosted by anticipated defense contract wins

■GARAN (+7.1%) – Benefiting from the 13.5% central bank rate hike and expanding loan book

■BİM (+6.8%) – Supported by stable food‑price dynamics

Technical Canvas: Fibonacci & Ichimoku Outlook

Fibonacci retracements clustered between the 38.2% and 61.8% zones, while the Ichimoku cloud’s upper Kumo band remained above price, suggesting any short‑term pull‑back will stay confined within the cloud.

■Fibonacci 38.2%: 7,850 points

■Fibonacci 61.8%: 7,450 points

■Kumo upper band: 7,780 points

■Kumo lower band: 7,560 points

Risk Factors and Outlook

The coming week will be shaped by a 13.5% policy rate and 2.1% inflation reading. Geopolitical tensions and FX volatility also raise the odds of BIST 100 testing its 50‑day moving average (MA50).

■Policy rate: 13.5% (Central Bank)

■Inflation: 2.1% (Core)

■MA50 level: 7,620 points

■Potential support: 7,450 points (Fibonacci 61.8%)

Caner Yılmaz – BIST 100 Technical & Quantitative Analysis Director: “The weekly data set shows liquidity inflows squeezing prices inside the Kumo. A break below the 38.2% Fibonacci level could spark a short‑term bullish thrust; otherwise, a dip beneath the MA50, combined with correlated FX pressure, may trigger a corrective wave.”