Bitcoin Bear Market: Analysts Call It 'Quite Relieving'

Bitcoin has retested its recent lows around $60,000 and then made a modest recovery towards $63,000. The cryptocurrency has fallen roughly 54% from its peak of approximately $125,000 in November 2025. Analysts at Bernstein, led by Gautam Chhugani, noted that this decline has been more muted compared to previous cycles, which saw corrections ranging from 75% to 90%. They wrote, 'While it's not entirely clear that we've dodged the bullet, this crypto bear market has been more gentle than the previous decline.' Bitcoin treasury companies and ETFs have seen an influx of $10 billion in 2026, down from $60 billion the previous year. Bitcoin ETFs alone have had outflows of $5.5 billion this year, corresponding to a $74 billion asset base. Institutional buyers have offset these outflows, with Strategy being a prominent player. Strategy's STRC privileged shares have resisted volatility, currently trading at $87.87, with a nominal value of $100. The company maintains a 17-month cash reserve to meet dividend and interest obligations, with debt representing only 13% of Bitcoin's collateral value. Analysts stated, 'It seems unlikely that Strategy will force significant Bitcoin sales. The company continues to be a net buyer in the market.' Bitcoin miners in the US have turned into net sellers, shifting towards artificial intelligence data center operations and leaving their hash rate share to international miners in Southeast Asia, Central Asia, and Latin America. The US miners' share of the global hash rate has dropped by more than 40 basis points over the last two quarters. On the regulatory front, Bernstein highlighted significant developments, including ongoing rule-making for stablecoins under the GENIUS Act and the launch of crypto perpetual swaps on US platforms like Kalshi and Coinbase. The passage of the CLARITY Act remains uncertain for this year. In conclusion, analysts noted, 'Every crypto correction is painful, but this one has been quite relieving. Crypto appears to be maturing.' Bernstein maintains its long-term bullish outlook but acknowledges that its $150,000 year-end Bitcoin price target seems ambitious in the context of market corrections. They expect the broader cycle to eventually turn in favor of the cryptocurrency. The relatively mild Bitcoin bear market suggests a sign of maturation in the crypto space. While analysts predict a long-term upward trend for Bitcoin, short-term market corrections should not be ruled out. It's essential to be cautious and closely monitor market conditions. Further analysis can be found in our Crypto Market Outlook section.